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| Essential Information on the Rising New Covid Variant |
The surge in hospitalizations, a doubling of Google searches within a month, and the acceleration of booster vaccines due to a new Covid variant might evoke a sense of déjà vu reminiscent of 2021. However, it begs the question: How much cause for concern should we harbor regarding Covid in the present day?
Marjorie, a resident of Pembrokeshire, had managed to navigate the entire pandemic unscathed by the virus—until recently. She had believed she possessed natural immunity until she contracted Covid from her granddaughter, who exhibited similar symptoms: a headache, muscle pain, and a loss of smell and taste. The unexpected fatigue and weakness she experienced took her by surprise.
Estimating the exact number of Covid cases this autumn has become a challenging task. Drive-in testing sites have long ceased operations, and free boxes of lateral flow tests have likely been scarce for months. While the Office for National Statistics infection survey, which used to gauge a random sample of the population, was discontinued in March, we do maintain records of the number of individuals testing positive for Covid in hospitals throughout the UK. This figure has been steadily rising since summer, signifying that the virus is still active and capable of causing severe illness.
As of September 17th, 3,019 hospital beds in England were occupied by Covid patients. While this number has tripled since July, it dipped slightly last week, representing only a fraction of the 33,000 seen at the peak of the second wave in 2021. Approximately one-third of these patients were primarily receiving treatment for Covid, with most testing positive after being admitted for other health issues. Hospitalization trends provide a rough gauge of the virus's prevalence and whether infection rates are on the rise or decline.
The likelihood of contracting Covid and the severity of the illness one experiences depend on a complex interplay of factors, including genetics, age, lifestyle, and environmental conditions. Recent research published in the journal Nature suggests that roughly 10% of the population possesses a gene enabling them to identify and combat the virus before it manifests typical symptoms such as cough, sore throat, or fever. Immunity levels vary widely depending on an individual's vaccination history and exposure to the virus.
The immunity gained from previous infections or vaccinations tends to wane relatively quickly, in contrast to diseases like measles or polio, where childhood vaccinations provide lifelong protection. Protection against Covid infection may last only a few months at best, although data indicates that protection against severe disease persists longer. The virus continually evolves, driven by various forms or variants, each with multiple genetic changes. These mutations can affect the virus's behavior, potentially increasing its transmissibility and making it more challenging for our immune systems, primed to recognize older versions, to combat it.
In late 2021, the Omicron variant demonstrated this phenomenon, infecting millions but not causing a significant surge in hospitalizations and deaths. Exposure to the virus, whether through vaccination, prior infection, or a combination of both, appears to mitigate the disease's severity. More recently, smaller waves have been driven by close relatives or subvariants of Omicron. In August 2023, scientists worldwide began monitoring the spread of a new version, BA.2.86, with numerous mutations. While early lab tests provide some reassurance, indicating lower contagiousness and reduced immunity evasion compared to initial concerns, only time will reveal its true impact.
The emergence of BA.2.86 prompted the early rollout of autumn Covid boosters to protect the most vulnerable this winter. However, these new vaccines are currently available only to individuals over 65 years old and those with specific health conditions. Most individuals under 65 will likely bolster their immunity through repeated Covid infections.
In conclusion, it's time to view Covid in a similar light to the flu, where new variants appear annually, some more severe than others, necessitating the development of new vaccines. While Covid will remain a concern for the most vulnerable, hospitals will continue to confront new waves of infection. Just as we experience good and bad flu seasons, it's likely that, every few years, we'll face a severe Covid episode, while most of the time, for most people, it will be manageable. While each Covid infection carries some risk, particularly for long-Covid symptoms, repeated exposures may lead to milder illness and stronger, broader immunity, gradually integrating Covid into the backdrop of our everyday lives.
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